Evaluation of the Nigerian population policy--myth or reality?

The National Population Policy (NPP) was promulgated to improve the living standards and quality of life of Nigerians by reducing the persistently high level of fertility and population growth, and achieving an even rural-urban development. The aim of this study was to review Nigeria's demographic patterns in the last decade against the 1995 and AD 2000 benchmarks stipulated in the NPP. The results revealed that the total fertility rate fell significantly to 6.2 in the earlier half of the decade but is still far from the targeted figure of 4.0. The infant mortality rate had risen in the past five years, and although the crude death rate declined by 21.49% in 1995, it has remained stagnant since then. There has been no appreciable decline in the rate of natural increase which was expected to fall by 31.03% in AD 2000. The current contraceptive prevalence rate of 11.0% is a far cry from the targeted 80% set in the population policy. In general, the situation that influenced the decision to promulgate the NPP in 1988 has not improved much: the national decline in fertility is not appreciable neither is the increase in welfare significant. The key issues in the reproductive health sectors include the limited availability and poor quality of services, which lead to high maternal and infant mortality rates, inadequate adolescent outreach, and limited use of contraceptives. This evaluation of the policy's targets and objectives in the light of the 1995 and AD 2000 benchmarks reveals that the NPP has failed due to an underestimation of the huge financial resources required for implementation, lack of political will, poor and uncoordinated organisation, 'gender-divide' and the prolonged political instability in the country.