Predicting the liver histology in chronic hepatitis C: how good is the clinician?

Liver biopsy is believed to be necessary before antiviral treatment in hepatitis C. Studies have found symptoms and biochemistry poorly predictive of grade and stage. In practice, a combination of factors is used to anticipate histology. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of global clinical assessment to predict histology in hepatitis C.

Fifty-four consecutive patients referred to a university center for consideration of antiviral therapy were enrolled. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded as was a prediction of the inflammatory grade (0-3) and fibrotic stage (0-3), with fibrotic stage 3 referring to cirrhosis. Liver biopsies were read by a blinded pathologist. The predictive value of the clinical assessment and individual parameters was assessed.

All predictions were < or = 1 point off the actual grade and stage. Thirty-six (66.7%) patients' grades and 41 (75.9%) patients' stages were exactly predicted. All four cirrhotic patients (sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%) and one case of hemochromatosis were correctly predicted. Spider nevi, organomegaly, white blood cell count < or = 4 x 10(9)/L, ALT > 120 U/L, bilirubin > 20 micromol/L, albumin < or = 35 g/L, and ferritin > 200 microg/L predicted grade > or =2. Stage > or =2 was associated with age > 40 yr, previous decompensation, spider nevi, organomegaly, white blood cell count < or = 4 x 10(9)/L, albumin < or = 35 g/L, platelets < or = 150 x 10(9)/L, and international normalized ratio > 1.2. Grade correlated with stage (Spearman coefficient = 0.54, p < 0.001). By multivariate analysis, ferritin plus spider nevi or hypoalbuminemia was independently predictive of inflammation. Spider nevi and thrombocytopenia, with either splenomegaly or hypoalbuminemia, were useful three-variable models for predicting fibrosis. The corresponding scoring systems produced useful likelihood ratios.

Global clinical assessment mirroring clinical practice in a tertiary liver transplant center is moderately accurate in predicting grade and stage in hepatitis C. Liver biopsy is the current gold standard; however, the amount of new information gleaned is less than was perceived. The need for routine biopsy before antiviral treatment in hepatitis C should be reevaluated in a multicenter study.