Related Experiment Video
Updated: Oct 3, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
[Empirical bayesian model applied to the spatial analysis of leprosy occurrence]
W V Souza1, C C Barcellos, A M Brito
1Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Recife, PE, Brasil.
Objective:
To analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy, identify areas of potential case underreporting or high transmission risk, and to assess the ecological association of leprosy distribution with multibacillary cases.
Methods:
This study was carried out in 94 neighborhoods of Recife, Brazil. Data was obtained from the Ministry of Health's Disease Reporting System. An ecological approach with the empirical Bayesian method was applied for local rate flattening, using data from a neighborhood matrix.
Results:
The mean annual occurrence was 17.3% of new cases in individuals under the age of 15 (28.3% corresponded to multibacillary forms), revealing an intense disease transmission. The spatial distribution of leprosy indicated three areas where there was a concentration of high detection rates and low-income neighborhoods.
Conclusions:
The Bayesian method allowed to reassess epidemiological indicators based on data from neighboring spatial units. This enabled to identify areas that should be prioritized in municipal control programs, either because of underreporting of cases or the higher number of occurrences related to multibacillary forms in individuals under 15.
Related Concept Videos
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Causality in Epidemiology
Bias in Epidemiological Studies
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...

