Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality.

R Lee1, T Miller

  • 1Demography and Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Ave., Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. rlee@demog.berkeley.edu

Demography
|November 29, 2001
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

A Contribution to the Pathology of Phlegmasia Dolens.

Medico-chirurgical transactions·2010
Same author

Pathological Researches on Inflammation of the Veins of the Uterus, with additional Observations on Phlegmasia Dolens.

Medico-chirurgical transactions·2010
Same author

Pathological and Practical Researches on Uterine Inflammation in Puerperal Women.

Medico-chirurgical transactions·2010
Same author

A Description of the Appearances observed in a Case of Double Uterus in which Impregnation had taken place, with Remarks on the Structure and Formation of the Membranes of the Human Ovum.

Medico-chirurgical transactions·2010
Same author

On the Functions of the Fœtal Kidney.

Medico-chirurgical transactions·2010
Same author

Case of Pulmonary Phlebitis.

Medico-chirurgical transactions·2010
Same journal

Extreme Weather and Mortality of Vulnerable Urban Populations: An Examination of Temperature and Unclaimed Deaths in New York City.

Demography·2026
Same journal

Overlooked Potential? Childcare Services and Ukrainian Refugee Mothers in Germany.

Demography·2026
Same journal

Effect of First Births on Women's Employment in a Low-Income Context: Research Note Using Panel Data From Nepal.

Demography·2026
Same journal

Decomposing Differences in Cohort Health Expectancy by Cause and Age With Longitudinal Data.

Demography·2026
Same journal

Wildfires and Birth Outcomes: Evidence From Spain.

Demography·2026
Same journal

The Effect of the Great Recession on U.S. Fertility: Causal Estimates From a Novel Cohort Discontinuity Design.

Demography·2026
See all related articles

The Lee-Carter (LC) method for mortality forecasting shows good accuracy, with 97% of projections falling within expected ranges. However, its accuracy varies with time horizon and changing mortality patterns.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Actuarial Science
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • The Lee-Carter (LC) model, a prominent statistical method for mortality forecasting introduced in 1992, is evaluated for its predictive accuracy.
  • This study assesses both historical and simulated forecast errors of the LC method, comparing them against errors from Social Security Administration projections.

Discussion:

  • The LC method generally underprojected mortality improvements, but to a lesser extent than Social Security projections.
  • While ex ante 95% probability intervals contained the true life expectancy (e0) 97% of the time overall, these intervals exhibited biases: too wide for shorter horizons (up to 40 years) and too narrow for longer horizons (after 50 years).

Key Insights:

  • Projections made post-1945 for the period up to 1998 consistently showed forecast errors under two years.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Hypothetical applications of the LC method to mortality data from France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada indicated strong performance in these countries.

    • Outlook:

    • The effectiveness of the LC method may be challenged by evolving age-specific patterns in mortality decline throughout the 20th century.
    • Further research could explore model adjustments to better accommodate dynamic shifts in mortality trends across different age groups and populations.