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Human population dynamics.

S R Duncan1, C J Duncan, S Scott

  • 1Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, UK.

Annals of Human Biology
|December 1, 2001
PubMed
Summary
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Human population dynamics in preindustrial England were influenced by wheat prices, causing malnutrition and mortality oscillations. Matrix modeling revealed long-term endogenous cycles in baptisms and burials, driven by these external factors.

Area of Science:

  • Historical demography
  • Population dynamics modeling
  • Paleoclimatology

Background:

  • Parish registers offer valuable data for analyzing historical human population dynamics.
  • Preindustrial populations experienced complex interactions between environmental factors and demographic trends.
  • Understanding mortality patterns is crucial for reconstructing past population dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate human population dynamics in preindustrial rural England using time-series analysis of parish registers.
  • To identify and explain oscillations at metapopulation, individual population, and mortality component levels.
  • To model the influence of exogenous factors, such as grain prices, on population dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Time-series analysis of burial, baptism, and mortality data from 404 English parishes.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Matrix modeling to elucidate endogenous oscillations in individual populations.
  • Development of a model to demonstrate the impact of grain price oscillations on mortality cycles.

    • Main Results:

    • A short-wavelength exogenous oscillation in burial series, linked to malnutrition and wheat prices, was detected across the metapopulation.
    • Long-term endogenous oscillations (30-32 and 43-44 years) were identified in baptisms and burials of individual populations.
    • Neonatal, post-neonatal, child, and adult mortalities exhibited exogenous short-wavelength oscillations driven by grain prices, influencing longer-term endogenous cycles.

    Conclusions:

    • Wheat price fluctuations significantly impacted preindustrial population dynamics through cycles of malnutrition and mortality.
    • Endogenous population cycles are shaped by the feedback mechanisms created by exogenous environmental oscillations.
    • Time-series analysis of parish registers provides robust insights into the drivers of historical population dynamics.