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Modelling the national scrapie eradication programme in the UK.
R R Kao1, M B Gravenor, A R McLean
1Institute for Animal Health, Compton, nr. Newbury Berks RG20 7NN, UK. rowland.kao@zoo.ox.ac.uk
Mathematical Biosciences
|December 4, 2001
Summary
A UK scrapie breeding program targeting highly susceptible flocks eradicates the disease faster than a general ram program. This targeted approach is more efficient for controlling transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in sheep.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Animal health
- Food safety
Background:
- Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) pose a risk to the food chain.
- Scrapie is a significant TSE affecting sheep flocks.
- The UK is planning a national breeding program to eliminate scrapie.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model flock-to-flock scrapie transmission.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of targeted vs. untargeted breeding programs for scrapie eradication.
- To estimate the susceptible sheep population and discuss control program implications.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a flock-to-flock scrapie transmission model.
- Estimation of the susceptible flock population size.
- Analysis of different breeding program strategies.
Main Results:
- Targeting rams and ewes in highly susceptible flocks eradicates scrapie more quickly than targeting rams in all flocks.
- A restricted program focused on highly affected flocks is easier to implement and equally fast for eradication.
- Both strategies leave a residual population of susceptible sheep.
Conclusions:
- Targeted breeding programs, particularly those focusing on highly susceptible flocks, are more efficient for rapid scrapie eradication.
- Incentives or penalties may be necessary to facilitate the identification of target flocks.
- A phased approach, starting with targeted programs and followed by general breeding, can effectively remove residual susceptible sheep.