Factors predictive of disease progression and death in AIDS-related Kaposi's sarcoma

The natural history of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) is poorly documented. We attempted to identify factors predictive of progression and survival in HIV-infected patients with KS and CD4+ cell counts greater than 100/microL.

We studied retrospectively 78 HIV-infected patients diagnosed as having KS between 1989 and 1995. The following variables were assessed as potential predictors of progression and death, in a Cox proportional hazards model: age, sex, ethnic group, transmission group, site of the first KS lesions, duration of KS, concomitant opportunistic infections or malignancies, antiretroviral drug therapy (excluding protease inhibitors), antiherpes treatments, neutrophil counts, CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts, plasma HIV load, p24 antigenaemia, beta2-microglobulinaemia and immunoglobin A and G serum levels.

During a median follow-up of 22 months (3-81 months), KS progressed in 66 of the 78 patients. The median survival time after progression was 68 months (9-126 months). Multivariate analysis identified only visceral KS, a high neutrophil count and a high serum immunoglobulin (Ig) level as independent predictors of progression (P < 0.05). Previous and concomitant opportunistic diseases (P = 0.003) and low CD4+ cell counts (P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter survival; in contrast KS therapy did not independently influence survival.

Progression of KS is predicted by markers of KS severity, while overall survival is best predicted by markers of immunodeficiency (opportunistic diseases and the CD4+ cell count).