[Lung cancer mortality in Barcelona: evidence for an initial decline in men]

Tobacco use in Spain is still high, with many smoking related deaths. However, a decrease in smoking prevalence in men has been observed in recent years, with a stabilisation or an increase among women. This paper studies the evolution of cancer mortality in Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) according to age and sex over the period 1984-1998.

The evolution of annual mortality by age and sex was calculated. Specific mortality rates were estimated by age and sex strata; crude and standardized death rates for each year were also determined. Finally, for the 35-64 years population, specific mortality rates were estimated for each 5-year period (1984-1988, 1989-1993, and 1994-1998).

Mortality rates do not change for men aged 35-39, 50-54 and 55-59 years. There was a decrease in lung cancer mortality rates in the 1994-1998 period compared to the first period for those men in the 60-64 years group. In men in the 40-44 and 45-49 years groups, rates increased in the second and stabilize in the last period. Global rates in men in the 35-64 years group, both crude and adjusted, were in the first and last 5-year periods. Among women, rates are much lower, although there was a significant increase in the 35-39 and 45-49 years groups. Crude and adjusted rates in all women aged 35 to 64 years displayed an increase in the last 5-year period.

These results show that in Barcelona the decrease in smoking prevalence among males is now leading to an initial decrease in lung cancer mortality. The turning point seems to be in the period 1989-1993. On the contrary, there is a clear increase among young women, although the rates are still much lower.