The risk of chronic myeloid leukemia: can the dose-response curve be U-shaped?

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is caused by a BCR-ABL chromosome translocation in a primitive hematopoietic stem cell. The number of hematopoietic stem cells in the body is thus a major factor in CML risk. Evidence suggests that the number of hematopoietic stem cells in the body is only loosely regulated, having a broad "dead-band" of physiologically acceptable values. The existence of a dead-band is important, because it would imply that low levels of hematopoietic stem cell killing can be permanent; i.e., it would imply that low doses of ionizing radiation can cause permanent reductions in the total number of CML target cells and thus permanent reductions in the subsequent risk of spontaneous CML. Such reductions in risk could be substantial if hematopoietic stem cells are also hypersensitive to radiation killing at low dose. Our calculations indicate that, due to dead-band hematopoietic stem cell control, if hematopoietic stem cells are as hypersensitive to killing at low doses as epithelial cells, reductions in the spontaneous CML risk could exceed the low-dose risks of induced CML; i.e., the net lifetime CML risk could have a U-shaped dose-response curve.