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Updated: Jul 16, 2026

Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System (FFS) for the Quantification of Methane Emissions
Published on: June 12, 2016
Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations
Chris E Forest1, Peter H Stone, Andrei P Sokolov
1Joint Program on the Science Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Abstract:
We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report.
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