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An Italian chart for cardiovascular risk prediction. Its scientific basis
A Menotti1, M Lanti, P E Puddu
1Centro di Medicina Preventiva di Gubbio, Merck Sharp & Dohme Italia. menottia@tin.it
Annali Italiani Di Medicina Interna : Organo Ufficiale Della Societa Italiana Di Medicina Interna
|January 22, 2002
Summary
A new risk chart for predicting major coronary and cerebrovascular events was developed using Italian population data. This tool aids clinicians in identifying individuals at high risk for primary cardiovascular disease prevention.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology
- Preventive Cardiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Major coronary and cerebrovascular events pose a significant public health challenge.
- Accurate risk prediction is crucial for effective primary prevention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a risk chart for the primary prediction of major coronary and cerebrovascular events in the Italian population.
- To create a practical tool for identifying high-risk individuals for targeted cardiovascular disease prevention.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from three Italian population studies (totaling 9771 participants aged 35-74).
- Employed an accelerated failure time model with sex, age, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and serum cholesterol as predictors.
- Developed two predictive models for younger (45-59) and older (60-74) age groups.
Main Results:
- Both predictive models demonstrated highly significant coefficients for all selected risk factors.
- The models showed satisfactory discrimination, with 40-50% of events in the highest risk quintile.
- A comprehensive risk chart was created, displaying absolute and relative risk estimates across various risk factor strata.
Conclusions:
- The developed risk chart is a valuable tool for the Italian medical profession.
- It facilitates the identification of individuals requiring primary prevention interventions for cardiovascular diseases.
- The chart provides a practical method for assessing absolute and relative cardiovascular risk.