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Evaluating plasma holds in the presence of multiple infections
1Yale School of Management, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520-8200, USA. edward.kaplan@yale.edu
Abstract:
To protect plasma supplies, donors are screened for infectious diseases. As an added measure of protection, donations are identified and stored for a period of time to allow future discard in the event that an identified donor subsequently tests positive for some screened disease. Previous models for evaluating such plasma holds have only addressed the case of a single infectious disease. This paper extends the analysis to the case of multiple infections. Given knowledge of the marginal incidence rates for those infections checked, upper and lower bounds for important quantities such as the probability of interdicting an infectious but undetected donation, the expected number of infections interdicted per donation, and the net economic benefits of the holding policy are developed. Several examples are developed, illustrating how the models can be used to evaluate the consequences of a plasma hold.
Insights
This study introduces a new model for evaluating plasma holds to protect blood supplies from infectious diseases. It extends previous work to multiple infections, improving safety and economic benefit analysis for blood donation screening.
Area of Science:
- Transfusion Medicine
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Plasma supply safety relies on donor screening for infectious diseases.
- Current plasma hold policies are evaluated using models for single infections.
- A need exists to assess hold policies considering multiple simultaneous infections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present a mathematical model for evaluating plasma hold policies under multiple infectious disease scenarios.
- To establish bounds for key metrics including interdiction probability and economic benefits.
- To provide a framework for assessing the consequences of plasma holding strategies.
Main Methods:
- The study extends existing models to accommodate multiple infectious diseases.
- It utilizes marginal incidence rates of screened infections.
- Mathematical bounds are derived for critical performance indicators.
Main Results:
- The paper provides upper and lower bounds for the probability of interdicting infectious donations.
- Expected numbers of infections interdicted per donation are calculated.
- Net economic benefits of plasma holding policies are quantified.
Conclusions:
- The developed model offers a robust method for evaluating plasma hold policies in the context of multiple infections.
- This research aids in optimizing blood safety protocols and resource allocation.
- The findings are crucial for public health strategies in transfusion medicine.