Applying modern survival analysis methods to longitudinal dental caries studies

Before the 1960s, tooth-specific caries risk was reported to be highest at 2 to 4 years after eruption. We studied the tooth-specific caries risk in three contemporary age cohorts in Finland. All together, 4072 boys and girls were followed annually from age 6 to age 18+ years in three age cohorts born in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. We used a survival model and Bayesian inferential methods in the statistical analyses to establish the secular changes during this period. The analysis was based on the caries risk in individual teeth as a function of tooth age instead of summary measures, such as DMFS values. Our first finding was a marked overall decrease of caries. Moreover, analyses of the 1960 and 1970 cohorts revealed that the risk in molar teeth was highest immediately after eruption; in the youngest cohort, however, the risks of individual teeth were so low that no such dependencies on tooth age could be established.