Reconstruction and analysis of 137Cs fallout deposition patterns in the Marshall Islands

Estimates of 137Cs deposition caused by fallout originating from nuclear weapons testing in the Marshall Islands have been estimated for several locations in the Marshall Islands. These retrospective estimates are based primarily on historical exposure rate and gummed film measurements. The methods used to reconstruct these deposition estimates are similar to those used in the National Cancer Institute study for reconstructing 131I deposition from the Nevada Test Site. Reconstructed cumulative deposition estimates are validated against contemporary measurements of 137Cs concentration in soil with account taken for estimated global fallout contributions. These validations show that the overall geometric bias in predicted-to-observed (P:O) ratios is 1.0 (indicating excellent agreement). The 5th to 95th percentile range of this distribution is 0.35-2.95. The P:O ratios for estimates using historical gummed film measurements tend to slightly overpredict more than estimates using exposure rate measurements. The deposition estimate methods, supported by the agreement between estimates and measurements, suggest that these methods can be used with confidence for other weapons testing fallout radionuclides.