Methods for assessment of future demand of medical doctors in Denmark

Whereas supply prognoses is mainly a matter of establishing mathematical scenarios with ongoing adjustments of variables, reliable demand prognoses are more difficult and complex to establish. However, optimum use of human and educational resources and--on the other hand--sufficient supply of medical doctors calls for reliable supply as well as demand prognoses.

Based on a number of technical and political considerations the first demand prognosis was based on three different methods; 1. Changes in demand due to demographic changes. 2. An evaluation made by the owners of the hospitals. 3. An evaluation made by the scientific medical societies.

The demand prognosis was found to be hampered by a number of limitations. Demographic changes beyond the next 10 years was found to be unreliable. Moreover, the demand observed during the last 20 years was only to a very limited extent explained by demographic changes. The owners of the hospitals could only prognosticate for an election period, i.e. for about 5 years,--and only in very general terms that were difficult to interpretate. From some counties the answers did only seem to be based on rather superficial analysis and gave very little information. Each of the Scientific Medical Societies claimed increasing demands for the next 25 years, despite marked expectations for diagnostic and therapeutic advantageous technological developments. The overall conclusion from the combined weighed analysis was an expected increase in the demand of medical doctors of about 1% per year in the short as well as in the long term (25 years). This should be compared to the observed development during the last 10 years, i.e. an annual increase of 1.7-1.8%.