A birth cohort analysis of smoking by adults in Great Britain 1974-1998

The aim of the study was to determine for Great Britain the percentage of current smokers and ever smokers by age in successive birth cohorts and the percentage of ever smokers who continue, by analysis of data from serial cross-sectional surveys of smoking status (General Household Survey).

A series of 5 year birth cohorts were followed through data from the 13 national surveys conducted at biennial intervals between 1974 and 1998.

In all birth cohorts, male and female, after age 25 years the percentage of current smokers falls with age. In the earliest birth cohort for males (1897-1901) about 85 per cent were ever smokers (i.e. had smoked at some time). After the 1922-1926 cohort this started to fall, to reach the level of about 50 per cent in the 1962-1966 cohort. In females only 25 per cent of the earliest cohort ever smoked but this rose, reaching about 65 per cent in the 1922-1926 cohort before falling back to about 50 per cent in the 1962-1966 cohort. The age at which smokers quit appears to be falling in successive cohorts. Once they have started quitting the rate at which smokers do so is very similar in all cohorts, with about 1 per cent of ever smokers quitting each year. If these trends are continued the UK smoking prevalence targets will not be met.