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Related Experiment Videos

How many named species are valid?

John Alroy1

  • 1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA. alroy@nceas.ucsb.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|March 14, 2002
PubMed
Summary
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Biodiversity estimates are inflated because many species names are invalid. A new flux ratio method reveals that current diversity figures may be overestimated by 32-44%, impacting species counts.

Area of Science:

  • Paleontology
  • Taxonomy
  • Biodiversity Science

Background:

  • Estimates of biodiversity rely on species counts, but many accepted names are later found to be synonyms or invalid.
  • This taxonomic bias inflates current estimates of both living and fossil species diversity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the inflation of biodiversity estimates due to invalid taxonomic names.
  • To introduce and apply a "flux ratio" equation to correct for this bias.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of a comprehensive taxonomic dataset for 4,861 North American fossil mammal species.
  • Comparison of historical rates of taxonomic name invalidation and revalidation using a flux ratio equation.

Main Results:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Flux ratio analysis indicates that 24-31% of currently accepted fossil mammal names will eventually be invalidated.
  • This suggests current biodiversity estimates for this group are inflated by 32-44%.

    • Conclusions:

    • The flux ratio method provides a more accurate assessment of taxonomic inflation.
    • Similar biases likely affect hyperdiverse living groups, potentially lowering global species estimates significantly.