Predictors of mortality and stenosis after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPSs) are used to treat variceal hemorrhage and refractory ascites. We sought to determine factors associated with stenosis and mortality after TIPS placement in patients with end-stage liver disease. This is a retrospective review of 90 TIPSs placed over a 3-year period. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical parameters were analyzed in univariate analyses to determine their association with stenosis and death. Multivariate analyses were conducted using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard modeling. Thirty-five TIPSs were placed for recurrent variceal bleeding; 14 TIPSs, for uncontrolled variceal bleeding; 34 TIPSs, for refractory ascites; and 7 TIPSs, for other causes. The overall mortality rate was 33%, and 18 patients died within 30 days of TIPS placement. The 1-year stenosis rate was 49%. Fourteen patients underwent liver transplantation a mean of 116 +/- 143 days after TIPS placement. Prothrombin time greater than 17 seconds, serum creatinine level greater than 1.7 mg/dL, total bilirubin level greater than 3 mg/dL, and uncontrolled variceal bleeding as an indication for TIPS placement were significant predictors of 30-day mortality. Serum creatinine level was a predictor of 30-day mortality in individuals with recurrent variceal hemorrhage or ascites. Multivariate analyses showed that creatinine level greater than 1.7 mg/dL and uncontrolled variceal bleeding as an indication for TIPS placement were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Individuals with both coagulopathy and renal insufficiency had a 30-day mortality rate of 78%. Urgent placement of TIPS was associated with an increased risk for stenosis (hazard ratio = 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.9 to 10.1; P <.001), but no other clinical variables were associated with stenosis. Uncontrolled variceal bleeding as an indication for TIPS placement, coagulopathy, hyperbilirubinemia, and renal insufficiency were associated with increased mortality in patients with TIPSs. Individuals with both coagulopathy and renal insufficiency had high mortality. Urgent TIPS placement for uncontrolled variceal bleeding was associated with stenosis.