The probability of cost-effectiveness
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Published on: August 16, 2017
Anthony O'Hagan1, John W Stevens
1Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. a.ohagan@sheffiled.ac.uk
Background:
The study of cost-effectiveness comparisons between competing medical interventions has led to a variety of proposals for quantifying cost-effectiveness. The differences between the various approaches can be subtle, and one purpose of this article is to clarify some important distinctions.
Discussion:
We discuss alternative measures in the framework of individual, patient-level, incremental net benefits. In particular we examine the probability of cost-effectiveness for an individual, proposed by Willan.
Summary:
We argue that this is a useful addition to the range of cost-effectiveness measures, but will be of secondary interest to most decision makers. We also demonstrate that Willan's proposed estimate of this probability is logically flawed.
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