A mathematical model of hemorrhagic shock: the future of trauma triage

Trauma scores have attempted for decades to identify individuals likely to survive a traumatic insult. However, current systems are limited because they do not account for the complex physiologic mechanisms that unfold after a traumatic event. This article describes a new technique in trauma scoring that models these interdependent mechanisms and thereby seeks to predict the patient's ultimate short-term outcome and survival time based on the severity of the traumatic insult. This model uses three parameters in a system of ordinary differential equations to make this prediction: mean arterial pressure, neurologic function, and systemic acidosis/base deficit. This study demonstrates the accuracy of this model compared with known survival time data from previous animal studies. This model represents a new prognostic tool that can easily be integrated into a computer software package designed to facilitate quick and accurate triage decisions.