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Mortality in asthmatics over 15 yrs: a dynamic cohort study from 1983-1998
C K Connolly1, S M Alcock, R J Prescott
1Darlington Memorial Hospital, National Health Service Trust, UK. ck-r.connolly@medix-uk.com
The European Respiratory Journal
|May 10, 2002
Summary
Asthma mortality significantly decreased over 15 years, halving by 1993/98. Lower social class and best forced vital capacity remained key risk factors for asthma death.
Area of Science:
- Respiratory Medicine
- Epidemiology
- Clinical Research
Background:
- Long-term asthma studies are crucial for understanding disease progression and mortality.
- Prospective data collection allows for the identification of risk factors and outcome predictors.
- Changes in asthma management may influence patient outcomes over time.
Purpose of the Study:
- To report changes in asthma mortality during a long-term observational study.
- To assess the relevant risk factors associated with asthma mortality.
- To evaluate trends in asthma mortality and their relationship to potential changes in management.
Main Methods:
- A dynamic cohort of 1,148 asthmatics attending secondary care was recruited from 1983 at 5-year intervals.
- Follow-up was conducted 5 years after initial recruitment, with a 95% follow-up rate.
- Demographic, functional variables, and best lung function estimates were prospectively recorded.
Main Results:
- Asthma mortality halved by 1993/98 compared to 1983 levels.
- Lower social class and best forced vital capacity were identified as principal risk factors for mortality.
- Despite a lower than predicted forced expiratory volume in one second, mortality approximated the local reference population by 1993/98.
Conclusions:
- A consistent reduction in asthma mortality was observed, not solely attributable to a survivor effect.
- Changes in asthma management may have contributed to the observed decrease in mortality.
- Risk factors for mortality remained consistent throughout the study period.
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