Sensitivity analysis of Salmonella enteritidis levels in contaminated shell eggs using a biphasic growth model

Salmonella enteritidis (SE) is a common foodbome pathogen, the transmission of which is primarily associated with the consumption of contaminated Grade A shell eggs. In order to estimate the level of SE present in raw shell eggs, it is necessary to consider the protective effects of the egg albumin, which effectively inhibits SE growth in a time- and temperature-dependent manner. In this study, a SE growth model was produced by combining two mathematical equations that described both the extended lag phase of SE growth (food component) and a SE growth model (pathogen component). This biphasic growth model was then applied to various egg handling scenarios based on the farm-to-table continuum, including in-line and off-line processing facilities with consideration of key events in production, processing, transportation, and storage. Seasonal effects were also studied. Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize variability in temperature and time parameter values influencing the level of SE to which individuals are exposed. The total level of SE consumed was estimated under best, most likely, and time-temperature abusive handling scenarios. The model estimated that, in most cases, there was no SE growth in contaminated eggs handled under most likely practices, because 10-70% of the yolk membrane remained intact. Under abusive handling scenarios, complete loss of yolk membrane integrity frequently occurred by the time eggs reach the distribution phase, followed by subsequent SE growth, which was often quite rapid. In general, the effect of season and processing method (in-line vs. off-line) was minimal. Further sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the initial SE contamination level significantly influenced the final exposure levels only under no-abuse or mildly abusive conditions. The results of our study suggest that, for maximum reduction of SE exposure level, cooling strategies should not only focus on the on-farm or processing phases, but should emphasize the importance of cooling strategies at the distribution and consumer phases of the farm-to-fork continuum.