Retrospective and prospective validity of aircraft accident risk indicators

Data from a national survey of pilots were used to examine the validity of measures for the prediction of aviation accidents that had occurred prior to the survey (retrospective analysis) and accidents that occurred after the survey (prospective analysis). Separate retrospective and prospective analyses were conducted, and 45 measures from the survey were found to be associated significantly with accident involvement in the retrospective analysis. However, only 13 of those 45 measures achieved significance in the prospective analysis. Most of the measures found to be significantly related to accident involvement concerned aviation exposure; the remaining measures related to pilots' perceived and actual level of caution. The study is unique in its use of a cohort design for the examination of aircraft accident risk prospectively, and the results suggest the need for caution in the interpretation of retrospective analyses in this research domain. Actual or potential applications of this research include the design of aviation safety programs and the design or interpretation of studies that address indicators of aircraft accident risk.