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Related Experiment Videos

When debiasing backfires: accessible content and accessibility experiences in debiasing hindsight.

Lawrence J Sanna1, Norbert Schwarz, Shevaun L Stocker

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 27599-3270, USA. sanna@unc.edu

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
|May 23, 2002
PubMed
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Trying to reduce hindsight bias by listing alternative outcomes can backfire. Difficulty in listing many outcomes increases bias, while ease with few outcomes shows no bias effect.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Hindsight bias, the tendency to perceive past events as more predictable than they were, is a pervasive cognitive phenomenon.
  • Attempts to mitigate hindsight bias often involve counterfactual thinking, exploring alternative outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how the subjective experience of generating counterfactual thoughts influences hindsight bias.
  • To examine the role of subjective accessibility in debiasing hindsight.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted where participants listed either a few (2) or many (10) counterfactual thoughts about a given event.
  • Subjective experiences of task difficulty and ease were recorded.

Main Results:

  • Listing many counterfactual thoughts was perceived as difficult and significantly increased hindsight bias.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Listing few counterfactual thoughts was perceived as easy and did not produce significant hindsight effects.
  • Subjective accessibility experiences appear to mediate the effect of counterfactual thinking on hindsight bias.

    • Conclusions:

    • The ease or difficulty experienced when generating alternative outcomes is crucial in mitigating hindsight bias.
    • Debiasing strategies should consider the subjective experience of cognitive tasks, not just the content generated.