Modelling of age-related bone loss using cross-sectional data
I Malkin1, D Karasik, G Livshits
1Department of Anatomy and Anthropology, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69978, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Annals of Human Biology
|May 29, 2002
Summary
A two-interval function accurately models bone mineral density (BMD) changes across the lifespan, regardless of ethnicity or sex. This model reveals distinct periods of bone acquisition, stabilization, and age-related bone loss, with specific parameters varying by gender and ethnic group.
Area of Science:
- Osteology
- Anthropometry
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Current bone mineral density (BMD) analysis in aging studies faces limitations.
- Inaccurate mathematical modeling of BMD changes across youth, maturity, and senescence can yield flawed conclusions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify the optimal mathematical function for describing age-related BMD variations.
- To assess the universal applicability versus population-specific nature of the best-fitting BMD model.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of compact BMD in hand phalanges from 5,000 individuals across 13 ethnic samples (Europe and Asia).
- Measurement via photodensitometry from plain radiographs.
- Development of specialized statistical software for maximum likelihood parameter estimation.
Main Results:
- A two-interval function proved to be the most parsimonious and best-fitting model for BMD changes with age in all representative samples.
- This model identified age-specific thresholds for bone loss onset (T(0)), occurring between 37-47 years in females and 27-49 years in males.
- Annual cortical bone loss was linear post-threshold, averaging 0.51-1.15% in men and 0.74-1.77% in women.
Conclusions:
- Phalangeal BMD changes with age are best modeled by a two-interval function, irrespective of sex or ethnicity.
- Specific model parameters are influenced by gender and ethnic background.
- A robust, well-fitted model for BMD dependence on age is established for population studies.
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