Testing a GIS model of habitat suitability for a declining grassland bird

Demand for information that can be used to manage loggerhead shrikes has recently increased because of concern over declining populations and loss of open, non-forested habitat. A previously-developed habitat model was modified to predict shrike habitat quality on Fort Riley Military Reservation (FRMR) in Kansas. Shrike habitat suitability indices were calculated based on the amount of potential and usable foraging habitat, and the number of potential nesting sites within a specified area. Interpretation of high quality digital photographs was used to delineate land cover classes, hedgerows and tree counts. These data were entered into a geographic information system (GIS) as individual data sets. The shrike habitat model was then employed to produce a GIS database predicting low, moderate, and high quality shrike habitat throughout the Reservation. Model results indicated that 67% of the Reservation was suitable habitat for loggerhead shrikes. Although over 80% of FRMR was mapped as grassland, the presence of few to several isolated trees or hedgerows was identified as a key factor in modeling habitat suitability. The accuracy of the GIS model was 82% in predicting suitable (moderate and high quality) loggerhead shrike habitat using an independent set of 66 recent shrike observations. The number of potential nesting sites and percent cover of usable foraging habitat were significantly related to habitat suitability of the sites occupied by shrikes.