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Growth prediction models, concept and use
Berit Kriström1, Kerstin Albertsson Wikland
1Gothenburg Pediatric Growth Research Center, Institute for the Health of Women and Children, Department of Pediatrics, Sahlgrenska Academy at Gothenburg University, Queen Silvia Children's Hospital, Sweden. Berit.Kristrom@pediatri.umu.se
Insights
Validated prediction models now enable accurate forecasting of growth hormone (GH) treatment response in children with GH deficiency (GHD) or idiopathic short stature (ISS). This allows personalized treatment decisions, monitoring, and dose adjustments for optimal height outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Endocrinology
- Growth Medicine
Background:
- Traditional regression models analyze group data, lacking individual predictive power for pediatric growth.
- Growth hormone (GH) treatment is used for children with GH deficiency (GHD) and idiopathic short stature (ISS).
Purpose of the Study:
- To highlight the difference between group regression and individual prediction models for GH therapy.
- To explain the utility of accurate prediction models in personalizing GH treatment for children.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing validated prediction models to forecast individual growth response to GH therapy.
- Employing the growth response to standard GH doses as a bioassay for GH responsiveness.
Main Results:
- Accurate prediction models can now forecast individual growth response to GH treatment.
- Growth response data informs treatment decisions, monitoring, and GH dose adjustments.
Conclusions:
- Validated prediction models offer a significant advancement over group-based regression for individualizing GH therapy.
- Personalized GH treatment strategies, guided by predictive models, aim to achieve specific height goals.
Abstract:
There is a principal and qualitative difference between using regression results on data from groups of children, and using validated prediction models for individual children. Using accurate models, it is now possible to predict the growth response to growth hormone (GH) treatment in a slowly growing child with GH deficiency (GHD) or in a child with idiopathic short stature (ISS). The growth response to the standard dose of GH can be regarded as a bioassay for GH (i.e. the tissue GH responsiveness) and the information on this growth response can be used for different purposes: to decide about treatment or not, for monitoring, and for adjusting the GH dose in order to reach a defined goal for height. This last concept is now used in an ongoing prospective randomized GH dose-finding trial.