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Sample size, confidence, and contingency judgement.

Mélanie Clément1, Pierre Mercier, Luigi Pastò

  • 1School of Psychology, University of Ottawa, 145 Jean-Jacques Lussier, P.O. Box 450, Station A, Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 6N5. mclem078@uottawa.ca

Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology = Revue Canadienne De Psychologie Experimentale
|June 18, 2002
PubMed
Summary

Statistical and associative models of contingency judgment were compared. Findings indicate that contingency judgment decreases with smaller sample sizes, contradicting statistical models.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Human Learning

Background:

  • Contingency judgment acquisition is explained by two main theories: statistical models and associative models.
  • Statistical models propose confidence increases with sample size.
  • Associative models suggest judgment reflects accumulated associative strength.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate which model better explains contingency judgment acquisition.
  • To examine the influence of sample size and contingency on judgment and confidence.

Main Methods:

  • Thirty university students participated in the study.
  • Participants assessed the relationship between a fictitious medication and skin discoloration.
  • Independent variables included sample size (4, 6, 8, 40 trials) and contingency (delta P = .20, .40, .60, .80).

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  • Confidence ratings were also collected.

    • Main Results:

    • Contingency judgment was significantly lower for smaller sample sizes.
    • Confidence levels showed an inverse correlation with sample size.
    • A dissociation was observed between contingency judgment and confidence levels.

    Conclusions:

    • The results contradict the predictions of statistical models.
    • The findings support an alternative explanation for contingency judgment acquisition, potentially aligning more with associative models.
    • Confidence does not solely drive contingency judgment as sample size varies.