Development of a risk-based TMDL assessment approach using the integrated modeling system GIBSI

Using the integrated modeling system GIB SI and a case study, this paper presents the development of a risk-based TMDL assessment approach that links wet (nonpoint/diffuse) and dry weather (point) sources to a probability of exceeding water quality standards (WQS) governing wateruses. The case study focused on determining whether WQS defining recreational uses of water requiring direct and prolonged contact were attainable if the waste water effluent of a small town was treated using aerated lagoons and if the agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) loads were reduced using different fertilization rates. Dry weather sources were assumed to solely contribute to bacteriological impairment of the studied river reach. Meanwhile, both wet and dry weather sources were assumed to contribute to aesthetic impairment. Simulation results showed that treating the waste water effluent while reducing the agricultural NPS loads by 27% allowed on average over a four-year study period for attainment of the bacteriological WQS 100% of the summer time while lowering the probability of exceeding the aesthetic WQS from 0.32 to 0.19 (30 to 18 days). The results of this study showed this risk-based assessment approach was well suited to establish TMDL. These probabilities should be evaluated using long meteorological series.