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A perspective: risk analysis as a tool for reducing the risks of terrorism
1sinprisa@earthlink.net
Abstract:
The destruction by terrorists of the twin towers of the World Trade Center and major damage wrought to the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, followed closely by the bioterrorist anthrax attacks via the mails raised the question of whether risk analysis might have a place in defending the United States against terrorist attacks. After first reviewing the multifaceted nature of terrorism and the reasons it is likely to become endemic in world society in the long term, just as other areas of crime are endemic, this article surveys several fields of risk analysis, finding possible short- and long-term uses of risk analysis. The areas chiefly considered are: risk communication and chemical, biological, and technological risk analysis. Broad policy and other uses are also considered. The author finds that risk analysis has already played some role, perhaps informally, but he sees the possibility for a much larger, formal one, a role that is centrally important for the present and future of the United States and the world.
Insights
Risk analysis can be a vital tool in defending against terrorism. This approach offers significant short- and long-term benefits for national security and global safety.
Area of Science:
- National Security
- Risk Management
- Terrorism Studies
Background:
- The September 11, 2001 attacks and subsequent anthrax incidents highlighted the need for enhanced security measures.
- Terrorism presents a complex, evolving threat that may become endemic globally.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the potential applications of risk analysis in counter-terrorism strategies.
- To identify how risk analysis can be formally integrated into national defense.
Main Methods:
- Review of the multifaceted nature of terrorism.
- Survey of various risk analysis fields, including risk communication and chemical, biological, and technological risk analysis.
- Consideration of broad policy and other applications.
Main Results:
- Risk analysis has potential for both short-term and long-term use in combating terrorism.
- Existing, informal use of risk analysis in security is identified.
- Significant opportunities for formal, expanded roles for risk analysis are evident.
Conclusions:
- Risk analysis is crucial for the present and future defense of the United States against terrorism.
- Formal integration of risk analysis can significantly enhance national security.
- The principles of risk analysis are applicable to diverse threats, including bioterrorism and technological risks.