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European scenarios for EUSES regional distribution model
Volker Berding1, Michael Matthies
1Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, D-49069 Osnabrück, Germany.
Summary
Environmental concentration modeling in Europe reveals regional differences. The standard scenario is not always a worst-case, highlighting the need for region-specific environmental risk assessments.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
- Chemical Exposure Modeling
Background:
- The EUSES 1.0 model uses a multimedia distribution approach for environmental concentration estimation.
- European environmental conditions vary significantly between Northern and Southern regions.
- Existing standard scenarios may not capture the full range of potential environmental exposures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the regional predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in Europe using distinct North and South European scenarios.
- To compare PECs derived from regional scenarios against the default generic scenario in EUSES 1.0.
- To assess the suitability of the standard generic scenario as a worst-case predictor.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the EUSES 1.0 regional multimedia distribution model.
- Developed two specific European scenarios: one for Northern Europe and one for Southern Europe, based on average regional data.
- Performed scenario calculations using the North, South, generic standard, and North-Rhine Westphalian regions, keeping substance properties and emissions constant.
Main Results:
- Calculated environmental concentrations for several substances were higher in both Northern and Southern European scenarios compared to the standard generic scenario.
- Demonstrated that the standard generic scenario is not inherently a 'worst-case' scenario.
- Highlighted significant uncertainties in environmental concentration predictions due to regional heterogeneity across Europe.
Conclusions:
- The standard EUSES 1.0 scenario is insufficient for representing worst-case environmental concentrations across Europe.
- Regional heterogeneity significantly impacts predicted environmental concentrations.
- Incorporating North and South European scenarios improves the estimation of potential chemical concentration ranges, enhancing environmental risk assessment accuracy.