Genetic change and rates of cladogenesis

Models are introduced which predict ratios of mean levels of genetic divergence in species-rich versus species-poor phylads under two competing assumptions: (1) genetic differentiation is a function of time, unrelated to the number of cladogenetic events and (2) genetic differentiation is proportional to the number of speciation events in the group. The models are simple, general, and biologically real, but not precise. They lead to qualitatively distinct predictions about levels of genetic divergence depending upon the relationship between rates of speciation and amount of genetic change. When genetic distance between species is a function of time, mean genetic distances in speciose and depauperate phylads of equal evolutionary age are very similar. On the contrary, when genetic distance is a function of the number of speciations in the history of a phylad, the ratio of mean genetic distances separating species in speciose versus depauperate phylads is greater than one, and increases rapidly as the frequency of speciations in one group relative to the other increases. The models may be tested with data from natural populations to assess (1) possible correlations between rates of anagenesis and cladogenesis and (2) the amount of genetic differentiation accompanying the speciation process. The data collected in electrophoretic surveys and other kinds of studies can be used to test the predictions of the models. For this purpose genetic distances need to be measured in speciose and depauperate phylads of equal evolutionary age. The limited information presently available agrees better with the model predicting that genetic change is primarily a function of time, and is not correlated with rates of speciation. Further testing of the models is, however, required before firm conclusions can be drawn.