Effect of declining fertility on population aging in India: an application of Coale's analytical model

This paper attempts to gauge the effect of constantly declining fertility on population aging in India through the application of an analytical model proposed by Ansley Coale (1972), which employs stable population theory. The author has assumed a linearly constant fertility decline in India to obtain a net reproduction rate equals 1 by the year 2001. The projected age distribution in 2001 shows that the proportions of males and females aged 65+ will be 3.66% and 3.98% respectively. This means that there would be an increase of 7.3% in the proportion of males (65+) from 1971 to 2001. The corresponding increase for females is more, 17.4%. The median age of males increases from 16.59 to 22.92 years during the same period. For females, the increase is from 16.64 to 22.75 years. Although the proportional increase of the aged is not very substantial, the absolute magnitude it implies is very large. It has far reaching implications in the development process in India.