Do coronary heart disease risk factors change over time?

The stability over a 12-year period of several coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors was evaluated in 348 individuals who had remained healthy following baseline measurements made of the same variables in 1981. CHD risk factors evaluated were fasting and post-glucose challenge (120-minute) plasma glucose and insulin concentrations, plasma triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentrations, and the ratio of LDL/HDL cholesterol concentrations. Approximately 40% to 60% of individuals in the highest CHD risk quartile (or lowest in the case of HDL cholesterol concentrations) in 1981 were still at highest risk in 1993. A similar proportion of individuals at lowest risk in 1981 were still in that category in 1993. At least 50% of the participants in this prospective analysis experienced a change by 1 quartile or more in each of the metabolic CHD risk factors measured, and these differences were highly statistically significant for all variables measured with the exception of the TG and HDL cholesterol concentrations. These results demonstrate that the implicit assumption in epidemiological studies that CHD risk factors at baseline remain stable may require examination.