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A sequential study of migration and job search.

B P Mccall, J J Mccall

    Journal of Labor Economics
    |October 1, 1987
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study introduces a multiarmed bandit model to analyze job-seeking migration. It explains migration patterns, like wage variability attracting migrants, and uses martingale methods for analysis.

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    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Sociology
    • Statistics

    Background:

    • Migration and job search are complex processes.
    • Traditional models may not fully capture dynamic decision-making.
    • Understanding migration drivers is crucial for policy and planning.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a novel sequential model for analyzing the migration-job search process.
    • To provide a framework compatible with existing migration theories and explore new implications.
    • To demonstrate the utility of martingale methods in this context.

    Main Methods:

    • Design of a multiarmed bandit (MAB) sequential model.
    • Application of martingale estimators derived from the model's structure.
    • Empirical exemplification using return migration data.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsEconomic FactorsEmploymentIncomeMacroeconomic FactorsMigrationModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyReturn MigrationSocioeconomic FactorsWorld

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    Main Results:

    • The model's implications align with established migration behaviors.
    • Identified novel, plausible migration drivers: wage variability attracting migrants.
    • Demonstrated that regions with high nonpecuniary returns experience increased in- and out-migration.

    Conclusions:

    • The MAB model offers a robust framework for studying migration and job search.
    • Martingale methods provide an advantageous and tractable approach for estimation.
    • The findings enhance our understanding of factors influencing migration decisions.