Predictive validity of variables used to select students for postgraduate management courses

The present study set in the United Kingdom examined the predictive validity of variables used to select graduate students into postgraduate management programs at a UK business school. 303 postgraduate students completed a cognitive ability test (MD5, Mental Ability Test), a questionnaire to assess perceptions of self-efficacy to succeed on the program, and reported their performance on their first (undergraduate) degree. Students completed these measures at the start of the programs. Each program comprised 12 modules, which all students were required to complete successfully. Students' performance was measured by the average grade obtained over the 12 modules. Multiple regression indicated that only 22% of the variance (Adjusted R2 = .22, p<.001) in students' performance was predicted significantly by cognitive ability scores. Results show that neither performance on first degree nor scores for self-efficacy showed a significant relationship to the criterion measure. Findings from the present study suggest that in the UK, the use of cognitive ability tests may play a significant role in the selection of students into postgraduate programs. Nonsignificant self-efficacy and performance relationships are ascribed to unclear knowledge of the demands of the program. We suggest that there is need for further research to examine factors related to performance.