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Related Experiment Videos

Estimating fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception.

J J Heckman, J R Walker

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |June 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study questions standard demographic methods for estimating fecundability, revealing an identification problem in duration models. Conventional goodness-of-fit tests may be unreliable for these population distribution models.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Biostatistics
    • Population Studies

    Background:

    • Estimating fecundability relies on assumptions about waiting times to conception.
    • Continuous time models assume exponential distributions, while discrete time models assume geometric distributions.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To test assumptions in demographic literature for estimating fecundability.
    • To investigate the identification problem in duration models for conception waiting times.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of waiting times to first conception data.
    • Examination of mixture of exponentials and mixture of geometrics distributions.
    • Critique of conventional estimation procedures and goodness-of-fit tests.

    Main Results:

    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEvaluationFecundabilityFecundityFertilityFertility MeasurementsHigh Fertility PopulationModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsReproductionResearch MethodologyTime FactorsUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

    • The U.S. Hutterite data align with assumed distributions.
    • A fundamental identification problem exists in conventional estimation procedures.
    • Goodness-of-fit tests may not reliably validate model specifications.

    Conclusions:

    • The study highlights a critical identification issue in demographic duration models.
    • Conventional methods for estimating fecundability may be flawed.
    • The practical implications of this identification problem are significant for demographic research.