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An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts.

S K Smith, M Shahidullah

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |March 1, 1995
    PubMed
    Summary

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    Population projection models using 1970 and 1980 U.S. census data showed 17%-20% error for total population counts. Projections for specific age groups had higher errors, ranging from 20%-29%.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Geographic Analysis

    Background:

    • Accurate population projections are crucial for resource allocation and urban planning.
    • Evaluating the performance of simple extrapolation techniques for sub-county level population forecasts is essential.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To assess the accuracy and identify potential bias in population projections for census tracts.
    • To compare the effectiveness of different extrapolation methods for forecasting total population and age-specific populations.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized U.S. Census data from 1970 and 1980 for three Florida counties.
    • Applied simple extrapolation techniques to generate population projections for 1990.
    • Compared projected 1990 populations with actual 1990 census counts to calculate errors and bias.
    Keywords:
    Administrative DistrictsAge DistributionAge FactorsAmericasBiasComparative StudiesCountiesDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesError SourcesEstimation TechnicsEvaluationFloridaGeographic FactorsMeasurementMethodological StudiesNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation ForecastPopulation ProjectionStudiesUnited States

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    Main Results:

    • Mean absolute errors for total population projections ranged from 17% to 20% for the most accurate methods.
    • No significant overall bias was detected in the total population projections.
    • Mean absolute errors for age-specific population projections were higher, varying between 20% and 29%.

    Conclusions:

    • Simple extrapolation techniques provide reasonably accurate total population projections at the census tract level.
    • Forecasting population by age group presents greater challenges and results in higher error rates.
    • Findings suggest caution when using these methods for detailed age-structured demographic planning.