Modeling household fertility decisions: a nonlinear simultaneous probit model.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Family Studies

Background:

• Understanding household fertility decisions is crucial for demographic and social research.
• Previous models often simplified the complex interplay of spousal desires in fertility planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and test a new statistical model for household fertility decisions.
• To analyze the joint influence of husband's and wife's desires on subsequent fertility.

Main Methods:

• Modeling the trivariate distribution of wife's desire, husband's desire, and subsequent fertility.
• Viewing stated desires as indicators of latent dispositions toward fertility.
• Estimating and testing model parameters to assess relative spousal influence.

Main Results:

• Both husband's and wife's disposition scores significantly affect the couple's fertility propensity.
• The model was tested using U.S. data from the Princeton Fertility Study (1950s-1960s).

Conclusions:

• The developed model provides a nuanced approach to understanding fertility decisions.
• Husbands and wives demonstrated equal relative influence on fertility propensity under specific assumptions.