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A three-sample multiple-recapture approach to census population estimation with heterogeneous catchability.

J N Derroch, S E Fienberg, G F Glonek

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |September 1, 1993
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces a new capture-recapture method accounting for individual capture probabilities, improving population size estimation. It uses a variant of the Rasch model and requires a second recapture for accuracy.

    Area of Science:

    • Statistics
    • Demography
    • Psychometrics

    Background:

    • Standard capture-recapture methods assume uniform capture probabilities, which is often unrealistic.
    • Estimating population size is crucial for accurate resource allocation and policy-making.
    • Previous models struggled to account for individual heterogeneity in capture susceptibility.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop an advanced capture-recapture approach accommodating varying individual capture probabilities.
    • To enhance the accuracy of closed population size estimation, particularly for census undercount.
    • To integrate psychological measurement models into demographic estimation techniques.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a novel capture-recapture model using a variant of the Rasch model.
    Keywords:
    AmericasCensusCensus MethodsData AdjustmentData CollectionData SourcesDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesError SourcesEstimation TechnicsHeterogeneityMathematical ModelMeasurementModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation StatisticsResearch MethodologyUndercountUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Incorporated individual parameters to model heterogeneity in capture susceptibility.
  • Required an additional recapture or independent data source for model estimation.

    • Main Results:

    • The proposed method effectively handles varying capture probabilities, improving estimation accuracy.
    • Demonstrated the model's utility with U.S. Census Bureau data from a 1990 census dress-rehearsal study.
    • Showcased the successful integration of administrative data as a supplement to Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) data.

    Conclusions:

    • The Rasch model variant offers a robust framework for capture-recapture analysis with heterogeneous capture probabilities.
    • This approach provides a more accurate estimation of population size, particularly relevant for census undercount.
    • The methodology has implications for improving demographic estimations and census accuracy.