Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Methods for national population forecasts: a review.

K C Land

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |December 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Related Concept Videos

    You might also read

    Related Articles

    Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

    Sort by
    Same author

    The quadratic hazard model for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and the life span.

    Physics of life reviews·2012
    Same author

    A sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates.

    Demography·2001
    Same author

    Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: a multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996.

    Demography·2000
    Same author

    Effects of the status of women on the first-birth interval in Indian urban society.

    Journal of biosocial science·1999
    Same author

    Social correlates of the dimensions of depression in the elderly.

    The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences·1998
    Same author

    A waiting time distribution for the first conception and its application to a non-contracepting traditional society.

    Genus·1995

    This review examines three population forecasting methods: demographic accounting, statistical time series, and structural modeling. It details their strengths, weaknesses, and limitations for accurate national population projections.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Statistics
    • Population Studies

    Background:

    • Accurate national population forecasting is crucial for policy and resource allocation.
    • Existing methods vary in their applicability for different time horizons and purposes.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To review and compare three major classes of population forecasting methods.
    • To identify the strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of each method.
    • To suggest future research directions in population forecasting.

    Main Methods:

    • Demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections.
    • Statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts.
    • Structural modeling for policy impact simulation and forecasting.
    Keywords:
    Cohort AnalysisComparative StudiesDemographic FactorsEstimation TechnicsMeasurementMethodological StudiesModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastPopulation ProjectionReliabilityResearch MethodologyTime FactorsWorld

    Related Experiment Videos

    Main Results:

    • Each method has distinct characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages.
    • Intrinsic factors limit the ultimate accuracy of population forecasts.
    • Specific research avenues are identified for each method class.

    Conclusions:

    • A comprehensive understanding of method limitations is essential for reliable population forecasting.
    • Further research is needed to refine existing methods and explore new approaches.
    • Interdisciplinary collaboration between demographers and statisticians is key to advancing the field.