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International migration under incomplete information.

S Berninghaus, H G Seifert-vogt

    Schweizerische Zeitschrift Fur Volkswirtschaft Und Statistik
    |June 1, 1987
    PubMed
    Summary
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    A temporary equilibrium model for international migration.

    Journal of population economics·1991
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    Temporary vs. permanent migration: a decision theoretical approach.

    Journal of population economics·1988
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    This study introduces a model for optimal sequential migration decisions, allowing individuals to learn migration returns through experience. The Gittins-index policy provides a simple framework for these complex choices.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Decision Theory
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Migration decisions are often made under uncertainty regarding returns.
    • Traditional models struggle to explain empirical migration patterns like remigration.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a model for optimal sequential migration decisions with incomplete information.
    • To incorporate rational learning about migration returns into decision-making.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a sequential decision-making model.
    • Application of the Gittins-index policy for optimal strategy derivation.
    • Analysis of learning dynamics in migration choices.

    Main Results:

    • The optimal migration policy is characterized by a Gittins-index policy.
    Keywords:
    BehaviorDecision MakingDemographic FactorsEconomic FactorsIncomeInformationInternational MigrationMigrationMigration PolicyModels, TheoreticalPolicyPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation PolicyResearch MethodologyReturn MigrationSocial PolicySocioeconomic FactorsTheoretical StudiesWorld

    Related Experiment Videos

  • The model provides explanations for empirical observations such as remigration.
  • Rational learning about pecuniary and non-pecuniary returns is central to the model.

    • Conclusions:

    • The Gittins-index policy offers a robust framework for sequential migration decisions under uncertainty.
    • This approach provides superior explanations for migration behavior compared to deterministic models.