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Modeling and forecasting U.S. sex differentials in mortality.

L R Carter, R D Lee

    International Journal of Forecasting
    |November 1, 1992
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study analyzes U.S. sex-specific life expectancy trends from 1900 to 2065. Advanced mortality models provide long-run forecasts, improving upon existing methods for demographic projections.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Biostatistics
    • Public Health

    Background:

    • Life expectancy in the United States has shown distinct sex differentials over the past century.
    • Accurate long-term forecasting of longevity is crucial for policy planning, particularly for social security and healthcare systems.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To examine observed and forecasted sex-specific life expectancies and longevity in the U.S. from 1900 to 2065.
    • To develop and validate advanced mortality models for long-run demographic projections.
    • To compare the accuracy of these novel forecasts against naive and official Social Security Administration (SSA) projections.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of sophisticated mortality models incorporating Lee-Carter methodology extensions.
    • Generation of long-term life expectancy and longevity forecasts with associated confidence intervals.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDifferential MortalityEstimation TechnicsLength Of LifeLife ExpectancyModels, TheoreticalMortalityNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologySex FactorsUnited States

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  • Comparative analysis of forecast accuracy using historical data and benchmark methods.

    • Main Results:

    • The study presents detailed sex-differentiated life expectancy trends and future projections.
    • The developed mortality models offer improved long-run forecasting capabilities with quantified uncertainty.
    • Forecast accuracy is evaluated against naive and SSA projections, highlighting model performance.

    Conclusions:

    • The research provides valuable insights into future U.S. longevity patterns by sex.
    • Advanced mortality modeling enhances the reliability of long-term demographic forecasts.
    • Findings can inform policy decisions related to retirement, healthcare, and social welfare programs.