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Inducing fertility change: a game-theoretic approach.

O Stark

    European Journal of Population = Revue Europeenne De Demographie
    |May 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study addresses fertility levels misaligned with social optima, proposing a prisoner's dilemma model for high fertility in developing nations. Mutual altruism offers a policy solution to reduce fertility rates.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Behavioral Economics
    • Public Policy

    Background:

    • Actual fertility levels often diverge from socially optimal levels.
    • Higher-than-optimal fertility is a concern in less developed countries (LDCs).
    • Lower-than-optimal fertility can occur in developed countries.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To explore mechanisms for inducing fertility change towards socially optimal levels.
    • To model fertility decisions as a prisoner's dilemma in LDCs.
    • To propose mutual altruism as a policy solution for fertility reduction.

    Main Methods:

    • Characterizing fertility as a prisoner's dilemma based on cost-benefit sharing.
    • Developing a mutual altruism model by combining agent utilities.
    Keywords:
    BehaviorDeveloping CountriesEducationMotivationPolicyPopulation ControlPopulation EducationPopulation PolicyPsychological FactorsSocial Policy

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  • Identifying a critical level of altruism to establish a stopping rule.

    • Main Results:

    • The prisoner's dilemma framework explains higher-than-socially-optimal fertility when costs are shared but benefits are not.
    • Mutual altruism, defined by a specific utility combination, can resolve this dilemma.
    • A unique critical level of altruism provides a rule for policy intervention.

    Conclusions:

    • Fertility policy can be informed by understanding the social dynamics of fertility decisions.
    • Mutual altruism offers a theoretical pathway for effective fertility reduction policies.
    • The model is adaptable to various contexts, including both high and low fertility issues.