Long-term demographic interactions in precensus England

Area of Science:

• Historical Demography
• Time Series Analysis
• Economic Modeling

Background:

• Analysis of annual demographic data for England spanning 1541-1800.
• Application of modern time series methods to understand long-term population trends.

Purpose of the Study:

• To apply advanced time series analysis to historical demographic data.
• To estimate structural parameters of long-term equilibria using economic models.
• To investigate Malthusian population dynamics and interactions between key demographic variables.

Main Methods:

• Application of modern time series methods to annual demographic data (1541-1800).
• Identification of non-stationarity and co-integration within demographic series.
• Implementation of optimal inferential procedures based on economic models of historical demography.

Main Results:

• Evidence of non-stationarity and co-integration in English demographic data.
• Detection of a small but significant Malthusian 'preventive check'.
• Observed interactions between fertility, mortality, and nuptiality consistent with demographic theory.
• Environmental factors showed no significant impact on estimated demographic parameters.

Conclusions:

• Modern time series methods effectively reveal complex dynamics in historical demographic data.
• The study supports the existence of Malthusian population regulation mechanisms.
• Demographic variables (fertility, mortality, nuptiality) exhibit significant interdependencies over the long term.