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Long-term demographic interactions in precensus England.

R E Bailey, M J Chambers

    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
    |January 1, 1993
    PubMed
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    This study analyzed historical English demographic data using modern time series methods, revealing significant Malthusian population dynamics. Findings confirm interactions between fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, with limited environmental impact.

    Area of Science:

    • Historical Demography
    • Time Series Analysis
    • Economic Modeling

    Background:

    • Analysis of annual demographic data for England spanning 1541-1800.
    • Application of modern time series methods to understand long-term population trends.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To apply advanced time series analysis to historical demographic data.
    • To estimate structural parameters of long-term equilibria using economic models.
    • To investigate Malthusian population dynamics and interactions between key demographic variables.

    Main Methods:

    • Application of modern time series methods to annual demographic data (1541-1800).
    • Identification of non-stationarity and co-integration within demographic series.
    • Implementation of optimal inferential procedures based on economic models of historical demography.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsDemographyDeveloped CountriesEnglandEuropeHistorical DemographyMethodological StudiesNorthern EuropePopulationPopulation DynamicsSocial SciencesUnited Kingdom

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    Main Results:

    • Evidence of non-stationarity and co-integration in English demographic data.
    • Detection of a small but significant Malthusian 'preventive check'.
    • Observed interactions between fertility, mortality, and nuptiality consistent with demographic theory.
    • Environmental factors showed no significant impact on estimated demographic parameters.

    Conclusions:

    • Modern time series methods effectively reveal complex dynamics in historical demographic data.
    • The study supports the existence of Malthusian population regulation mechanisms.
    • Demographic variables (fertility, mortality, nuptiality) exhibit significant interdependencies over the long term.