Prognosis of primary melanoma

To investigate the prognosis of primary melanoma, we studied a Finnish population of 298 primary melanoma patients, the majority with stage I or II tumours. The median clinical follow-up (4.8 years) was acquired from the patients' records, and the overall survival thereafter was collected from patient registries. The median follow-up for overall survival was 9.5 years.

The overall survival rate was 66.8%. 24.5% developed metastasis, 17.8% died of melanoma, and 15.4% died of some other cause. Surgical margins had no effect on survival. In univariate analysis the most significant prognostic factors for disease-free and overall survival were stage of tumour (p < 0.0001), thickness of tumour (p < 0.0001), depth of tumour invasion (p < 0.0001) and tumour ulceration (p = 0.0005, p < 0.0002). Ulceration was an unfavorable prognostic marker. Younger patients had better survival outcomes than older ones (p = 0.04). Accordingly, in the multivariate Cox model the independent prognostic factors for both disease-free and overall survival were stage of tumour and thickness of tumour. Tumour location on trunk was an independent adverse prognosticator for overall survival.

We conclude that the prognosis of primary melanoma has improved in Finland in the last decades being in line with a global tendency.