Pre-endoscopic prognostic factors in non-varicose upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Development of a predictive...

Upper gastrointestinal or digestive bleeding (UDB) is a common problem requiring hospitalization and implying important morbidity-mortality. The aim of the present study is to identify clinical and laboratory factors predictive of a serious course of non-varicose UDB, based on the development of a simple algorithm for application in the clinical setting.

A longitudinal study was made of 803 hospitalized patients with non-varicose UDB. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded in the Emergency Service before endoscopy. A first non-conditional logistic regression model was developed, including those variables exhibiting a greater capacity for predicting a serious outcome. This model was posteriorly simplified to facilitate clinical application. The prognostic performance was estimated by calculating the area under the ROC curve.

The initial predictive model included 11 variables, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.74 (95%CI: 0.71-0.77), while in the second model these same variables were dichotomized, exhibiting an area under the ROC curve of 0.74 (95%CI: 0.70-0.77). Based on the corresponding regression coefficients, the prognostic variables were classified as either major (shock, liver disease, anticoagulant therapy, urea/creatinine ratio > 62) or minor (hematocrit < 33%, renal failure, presentation as hematemesis and melenas, systolic arterial pressure < 110 mmHg, regular alcohol consumption, a history of UDB, and a patient age of > 75 years). UDB was predicted to take an unfavorable course in the presence of one major factor or two minor factors.

The proposed algorithm includes pre-endoscopy clinical and laboratory variables, and allows early classification of patients with non-varicose UDB in terms of their possible clinical course.