A physician workforce planning model applied to Canadian anesthesiology: assessment of needs

A human resource planning model for anesthesiology is described.

The model uses 'per capita' expenditure for anesthesiologists in Quebec, as a measure of clinical services provided to different age/gender groups. The future demand for anesthesia services is calculated as the product of 'per capita' expenditure and the population projections to a future date. Future demand was converted into full-time equivalent (FTE) providers required, by dividing by the annual 'units of service' optimally delivered by one FTE anesthesiologist. The pattern of age/gender (demographic) consumption of anesthesia services in Quebec was compared with data from Ontario to validate its use in a planning model. The model was then applied to all provinces and territories.

The 'per capita' expenditures on anesthesia services in Quebec and Ontario showed a regular pattern. Using the model, the estimated 1999 demand for FTE anesthesiologists to provide clinical services in Quebec is 546 and 669 for 2016. When non-clinical demands were included, we estimated that Quebec's total demand will increase to approximately 730 FTEs in 2016. Similar estimates are made for all provinces. The population increase anticipated is 17.9% but the increase in FTE demand in Canada is 30.9%.

The model showed that the cause of the increased FTE demand for anesthesiologists is a combination of increased population and its demographic composition. The relative impact of each of these factors varies in different provinces. Effective specialty-specific planning models can be designed but they need ongoing committed resources and personnel for their usefulness to be maximized.