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A clarification of transmission terms in host-microparasite models: numbers, densities and areas
M Begon1, M Bennett, R G Bowers
1Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Liverpool, UK.
Abstract:
Transmission is the driving force in the dynamics of any infectious disease. A crucial element in understanding disease dynamics, therefore, is the 'transmission term' describing the rate at which susceptible hosts are 'converted' into infected hosts by their contact with infectious material. Recently, the conventional form of this term has been increasingly questioned, and new terminologies and conventions have been proposed. Here, therefore, we review the derivation of transmission terms, explain the basis of confusion, and provide clarification. The root of the problem has been a failure to include explicit consideration of the area occupied by a host population, alongside both the number of infectious hosts and their density within the population. We argue that the terms 'density-dependent transmission' and 'frequency-dependent transmission' remain valid and useful (though a 'fuller' transmission term for the former is identified), but that the terms 'mass action', 'true mass action' and 'pseudo mass action' are all unhelpful and should be dropped. Also, contrary to what has often been assumed, the distinction between homogeneous and heterogeneous mixing in a host population is orthogonal to the distinction between density- and frequency-dependent transmission modes.
Insights
Understanding infectious disease transmission requires accurate transmission terms. This study clarifies these terms, recommending the use of density- and frequency-dependent transmission while advising against
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Infectious disease dynamics are driven by transmission.
- The 'transmission term' quantifies susceptible host conversion to infected hosts.
- Current transmission term conventions are under scrutiny, necessitating clarification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review the derivation of transmission terms in infectious disease dynamics.
- To explain the basis of confusion surrounding transmission term terminology.
- To provide clarification and propose revised conventions for transmission terms.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing literature on transmission term derivations.
- Analysis of the conceptual basis for different transmission term formulations.
- Conceptual clarification of host population area, host numbers, and host density in transmission.
Main Results:
- Failure to account for host population area alongside host numbers and density underlies current confusion.
- Density-dependent and frequency-dependent transmission terms are deemed valid and useful.
- The terms 'mass action', 'true mass action', and 'pseudo mass action' are identified as unhelpful and should be discarded.
Conclusions:
- Explicitly including host population area is crucial for accurate transmission term formulation.
- Density-dependent and frequency-dependent transmission modes are distinct from population mixing patterns (homogeneous vs. heterogeneous).
- Revised terminology for transmission terms will improve clarity and accuracy in infectious disease modeling.
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